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CST: 17/09/2019 03:49:42   

At June 2019 Year Midpoint TrueCar’s ALG Maintains 17M Annual SAAR New Car Sales Forecast

82 Days ago

New car sales expected to be down 2% for the second quarter compared to last year

SANTA MONICA, Calif., June 26, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,487,407 units in June, down­ 0.6% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17 million units for the month, and is expected to remain at 17M SAAR for 2019. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,203,565 units, a decrease of 6.3% from a year ago.

For the second quarter of 2019, ALG expects new vehicle sales will reach 4,409,295 units, down slightly, at 2%, from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“Increased incentive spending by several automakers in June in tandem with sustained strength in the underlying macro-economic indicators is helping drive resilient sales for both the month and quarter,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Given these factors, we are holding our initial forecast of 17M SAAR for 2019 made in January.”

Additional Takeaways & Trends: (Forecasted by ALG)
Month:

  • Automaker average incentive spend will reach $3,747, down 1% or $37 dollars year-over-year, and up 0.4% or $16 from May 2019. However, several automakers increased incentive spend year-over-year in June, most notably Honda and Toyota, up 12.3% or $226 and 3.5% or $80 respectively.
  • Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up 3.1% or $1,014 year-over-year
  • Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are expected to be 11%, down 3.9% from a year ago and up 0.6% from May 2019.
  • Kia is expected to continue to score high amongst mainstream competitors in brand strength this month according to ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI). This is driven largely by the Kia Telluride helping drive Kia retail sales up 8.3% year-over-year. On the TrueCar platform, recent trends show the newly launched Telluride advanced to the second most visited new midsize SUV and 10th most visited new vehicle overall. The Telluride also became the most popular midsize SUV and 8th most popular vehicle overall that consumers elected to connect with TrueCar Certified Dealers to receive upfront pricing on vehicles in their inventory.*
  • Lincoln stood out this month in ALG’s brand strength metric as well with high RHI scores amongst luxury brands which we believe is due to the continued success of the Lincoln Navigator and Nautilus SUV models.
  • Used vehicle sales for June are expected to reach 3,215,742 down 4.2% year-over-year and down 5.8% from May 2019.

Quarter:

  • Tesla, Subaru and Honda are each expected to gain 0.5 percentage points in retail market share in Q2 2019 compared to the same period last year. This is believed to be driven by Model 3 and Ascent performance for Tesla and Subaru, and a boost in incentive spend for Honda.
  • ALG expects used vehicle sales for Q2 2019 to reach 9,944,173 units, down 2.4% year-over-year.
  • Incentive spending by automakers is expected to reach $3,629 in Q2 2019, down 2.5% compared to the same period last year.

“New SUV product continues to be king in June,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Kia’s Telluride, along with Lincoln’s Navigator and Nautilus are resonating with consumers, helping those brands move metal and increase market share this month without raising incentives.”

“For the second quarter, new car performance continues to be strong from a historical perspective. We’re seeing a combination of exciting product and savvy incentive strategy propelling Tesla, Subaru and Honda respectively in gaining retail market share,” added Lyman.

Retail Health Index (Forecast)

RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven.  An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share. 

June 2019 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as June 2018. Tesla forecast included since March 2019.)

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer June 2019 June 2018 YoY %
Change
BMW  32,103  33,790 -1.3%
Daimler  28,283  29,125 0.8%
FCA  202,466  202,264 3.9%
Ford  204,086  229,537 -7.7%
GM  252,738  256,609 2.3%
Honda  142,968  146,563 1.3%
Hyundai  63,539  64,052 3.0%
Kia  58,964  56,571 8.2%
Nissan  125,147  145,096 -10.4%
Subaru  58,395  59,841 1.3%
Tesla  12,250  8,200 55.1%
Toyota  202,760  209,602 0.5%
Volkswagen Group  50,977  53,670 -1.4%
Industry  1,487,407  1,553,317 -0.6%


Incentive Spending (Per Unit)

Manufacturer June 2019     June 2018 YOY %
Change
BMW $5,688 $5,557 2.3%
Daimler $5,990 $6,464 -7.3%
FCA $4,562 $4,503 1.3%
Ford $4,435 $4,444 -0.2%
GM $5,040 $5,196 -3.0%
Honda $2,059 $1,833 12.3%
Hyundai $2,973 $2,899 2.6%
Kia $3,835 $3,928 -2.4%
Nissan $4,043 $4,041 0.0%
Subaru $1,537 $1,505 2.1%
Toyota $2,346 $2,266 3.5%
Volkswagen Group $3,708 $3,927 -5.6%
Industry $ 3,747 $ 3,785 -1.0%


Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer June 2019 June 2018 May 2019 YOY %
change
MOM %
change
BMW $55,374 $51,446 $56,279 7.6% -1.6%
Daimler $59,231 $57,450 $58,681 3.1% 0.9%
FCA $36,270 $34,722 $36,341 4.5% -0.2%
Ford $37,369 $36,388 $37,616 2.7% -0.7%
GM $37,629 $36,474 $37,561 3.2% 0.2%
Honda $27,948 $27,969 $27,978 -0.1% -0.1%
Hyundai $23,038 $22,055 $23,510 4.5% -2.0%
Kia $24,089 $22,583 $23,841 6.7% 1.0%
Nissan $27,415 $27,181 $27,647 0.9% -0.8%
Subaru $28,950 $27,881 $29,054 3.8% -0.4%
Toyota $32,456 $31,843 $32,377 1.9% 0.2%
Volkswagen Group $37,240 $35,482 $37,306 5.0% -0.2%
Industry $ 34,036 $ 33,022 $ 34,111 3.1 % -0.2%


Q2 2019 Forecast for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Q2 2019 Q2 2018 Q1 2019 YoY %
BMW 88,633 92,145 83,175 -3.8%
Daimler 84,047 89,427 78,878 -6.0%
FCA 594,068 600,707 498,425 -1.1%
Ford 629,893 674,920 586,956 -6.7%
GM 747,872 757,620 665,005 -1.3%
Honda 414,275 425,333 369,787 -2.6%
Hyundai 188,998 186,171 151,787 1.5%
Kia 170,411 166,618 136,596 2.3%
Nissan 352,828 364,692 365,851 -3.3%
Subaru 179,655 173,157 156,754 3.8%
Tesla 34,150 19,000 46,900 79.7%
Toyota 608,800 617,271 543,716 -1.4%
Volkswagen Group 162,711 163,285 150,184 -0.4%
Industry  4,409,295  4,500,262  4,006,667 -2.0%

For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.

*Unique TrueCar platform new car search visitors for the period June 17-23, 2019

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

Photos accompanying this announcement are available at

https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/5530961c-48f9-4809-a74e-e1f9340213e3

https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/0b985079-86fd-40ca-ba3a-a0bfaf1da6f0 

TrueCar & ALG PR Contact: 
Shadee Malekafzali
Shadee@truecar.com

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